Mapping the risk of Nipah virus spillover into human populations in South and Southeast Asia.
Michael G Walsh1
Affiliations1 institutions
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, State University of New York, Downstate Medical Center, Brooklyn, New York, USA [email protected][email protected].
PMID 261796542015Trans R Soc Trop Med Hygengppublish
Nipah virus (NiV) is a significant emerging zoonotic pathogen given its wide geographic distribution, and the severe morbidity and high mortality that accompanies infection. Moreover, the layered landscape epidemiology surrounding spillover from reservoir host species to humans is ill-defined. Identifying landscape features that contribute to NiV spillover would likely prove helpful in preventing emergence in human populations. Using an inhomogeneous Poisson model, this study investigated the role of vegetation cover, the human footprint (HFP) and reservoir Pteropus bat distribution to identify the spatial dependence of spillover and map risk across South and Southeast Asia. The spatial model identified HFP (RR=1.08; 95% CI 1.05-1.11) and bat distribution (RR=19.44; 95% CI 1.92-196.7) as significant predictors of NiV risk, while vegetation cover was not significant after accounting for HFP and the presence of Pteropus bats. These findings further inform the landscape epidemiology of NiV and suggest specific conduits for spillover in the landscape. However, more detailed field studies will be required to validate these results.
Nipah virus spillover risk was positively associated with Pteropus bat distribution and human footprint across South and Southeast Asia, highlighting an ecological interface affecting reservoir-driven spillover potential.
Using an inhomogeneous Poisson model, this study investigated the role of vegetation cover, the human footprint (HFP) and reservoir Pteropus bat distribution to identify the spatial dependence of spillover and map risk across South and Southeast Asia. The spatial model identified HFP (RR=1.08; 95% CI 1.05-1.11) and bat distribution (RR=19.44; 95% CI 1.92-196.7) as significant predictors of NiV risk.
Nipah virus risk was associated with Pteropus bat distribution and human footprint, supporting animal-to-human spillover potential from bats to humans in South and Southeast Asia.
Using an inhomogeneous Poisson model, this study investigated the role of vegetation cover, the human footprint (HFP) and reservoir Pteropus bat distribution to identify the spatial dependence of spillover and map risk across South and Southeast Asia.
Method
inhomogeneous Poisson model
Study design
spatial risk modeling
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
South and Southeast Asia
Zoonotic Surveillance1 records
Zoonotic SurveillanceExtraction confidence 0.70
Key finding
Distribution of Pteropus bats was a significant predictor of Nipah virus risk in South and Southeast Asia, supporting spatial surveillance of the reservoir host to assess spillover potential.
Using an inhomogeneous Poisson model, this study investigated the role of vegetation cover, the human footprint (HFP) and reservoir Pteropus bat distribution to identify the spatial dependence of spillover and map risk across South and Southeast Asia.
