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A Framework to Monitor Changes in Transmission and Epidemiology of Emerging Pathogens: Lessons From Nipah Virus.

Birgit Nikolay1 Henrik Salje1 A K M Dawlat Khan2 Hossain M S Sazzad2 Syed M Satter2 Mahmudur Rahman2 Stephanie Doan3 Barbara Knust3 Meerjady Sabrina Flora4 Stephen P Luby5 Simon Cauchemez1 Emily S Gurley2,6
Affiliations 6 institutions
  1. Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, CNRS, Paris, France.
  2. Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  3. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
  4. Institute of Epidemiology Disease Control and Research, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  5. Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine Division, Stanford University, Stanford, California, USA.
  6. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
PMID 32392322 2020 J Infect Dis eng ppublish
PubMed DOI Browse context

Article

Publication summary

It is of uttermost importance that the global health community develops the surveillance capability to effectively monitor emerging zoonotic pathogens that constitute a major and evolving threat for human health. In this study, we propose a comprehensive framework to measure changes in (1) spillover risk, (2) interhuman transmission, and (3) morbidity/mortality associated with infections based on 6 epidemiological key indicators derived from routine surveillance. We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh. We show that although interhuman transmission and morbidity/mortality indicators were stable, the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time. This combination of systematic surveillance and active tracking of transmission and epidemiological indicators should be applied to other high-risk emerging pathogens to prevent public health emergencies.

emerging pathogens monitoring Nipah virus surveillance Animals Bangladesh Cluster Analysis Communicable Diseases, Emerging Henipavirus Infections Humans Models, Biological Nipah Virus Risk Factors Zoonoses

Structured evidence records

Evidence records

2 total
Spillover Event 1 records
Spillover Event Extraction confidence 0.90
Key finding

Hospital-based surveillance in Bangladesh revealed that Nipah virus spillover events into humans varied in frequency and geographic distribution over time.

Virus
NiV
Location
Bangladesh Bangladesh
Supporting text

Using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh, the authors show that the number and geographic extent of spillovers varied significantly over time.

Method
hospital-based surveillance; epidemiological analysis
Study design
field surveillance
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh
Zoonotic Surveillance 1 records
Zoonotic Surveillance Extraction confidence 0.95
Key finding

Hospital-based surveillance in Bangladesh was used to monitor Nipah virus transmission dynamics and spillover variation over time.

Virus
NiV
Location
Bangladesh Bangladesh
Supporting text

We demonstrate the indicators' value for the retrospective or real-time assessment of changes in transmission and epidemiological characteristics using data collected through a long-standing, systematic, hospital-based surveillance system for Nipah virus in Bangladesh.

Method
hospital-based surveillance
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh