Characterization of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Nipah Virus Spillover Events in Bangladesh, 2007-2013.
Maria C Cortes1
Simon Cauchemez1,2,3
Noemie Lefrancq1
Stephen P Luby4
M Jahangir Hossain5,6
Hossain M S Sazzad5
Mahmudur Rahman7
Peter Daszak8
Henrik Salje1,2,3,9
Emily S Gurley9,5
Affiliations9 institutions
Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Paris, France.
Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
CNRS, Paris, France.
Stanford University, California.
icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Medical Research Council Unit, Banjul, Gambia.
Institute for Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York.
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the number of spillovers detected by district and year that remains unexplained. We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity. Interventions to prevent human infections may be most important during colder winters. Further work is needed to understand how dynamics of bat infections explains spillover risk.
Analysis of 57 bat-to-human Nipah virus spillover events revealed temporal and spatial heterogeneity influenced by temperature and proximity to surveillance hospitals.
We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity.
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh
Outbreak time
2007-2013
Outbreak scale
57 spillovers
Reservoir Ecology1 records
Reservoir EcologyExtraction confidence 0.90
Key finding
Nipah virus is maintained in bats with regular winter spillovers to humans in Bangladesh, and lower winter temperatures increased spillover frequency.
Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. Temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter.
Method
retrospective analysis
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh
Spillover Event1 records
Spillover EventExtraction confidence 0.98
Key finding
Bat-to-human Nipah virus spillovers were documented annually in Bangladesh between 2007 and 2013.
Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013.
Study design
retrospective study
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh
Zoonotic Surveillance1 records
Zoonotic SurveillanceExtraction confidence 0.85
Key finding
Analysis of 57 Nipah virus spillover events in Bangladesh revealed spatial and temporal heterogeneity in cases, related to temperature and proximity to surveillance hospitals.
We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity.
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
Bangladesh
Citation context
References
15 references
Reference network
Force-directed citation graph. OmniVira-indexed references are prioritized and recursively expanded up to three steps.
Integrated cluster- and case-based surveillance for detecting stage III zoonotic pathogens: an example of Nipah virus surveillance in Bangladesh. Epidemiol Infect 2015; 143:1922–30
