OmniVira

Periodic shifts in viral load increase risk of Hendra virus spillover from Pteropus bats.

Tamika J Lunn1,2 Benny Borremans3,4 Devin N Jones-Slobodian5 Maureen K Kessler6 Adrienne S Dale7 Claude K Yinda8 Manuel Ruiz-Aravena9 Caylee A Falvo10 Daniel E Crowley10 James O Lloyd-Smith11 Vincent J Munster8 Peggy Eby12,13 Hamish McCallum12 Peter Hudson14 Olivier Restif15 Liam P McGuire16 Ina L Smith17 Bat One Health Group Collaborators Raina K Plowright10 Alison J Peel12,18,19
Affiliations 19 institutions
  1. Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
  2. Center for the Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA.
  3. Wildlife Health Ecology Research Organization, San Diego, CA 92107, USA.
  4. Evolutionary Ecology Group, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium.
  5. Department of Microbiology and Cell Biology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA.
  6. Department of Ecology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA.
  7. Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA.
  8. Laboratory of Virology, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institutes of Health, Hamilton, MT 59840, USA.
  9. Department of Wildlife, Fisheries and Aquaculture, Mississippi State University, Starkville, MS 39759, USA.
  10. Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853, USA.
  11. Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
  12. Centre for Planetary Health and Food Security, Griffith University, Nathan, QLD 4111, Australia.
  13. School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 1466, Australia.
  14. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
  15. Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK.
  16. Department of Biology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, Canada.
  17. Health and Biosecurity Business Unit, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia.
  18. Sydney School of Veterinary Science, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
  19. Sydney Infectious Disease Institute (Sydney ID), Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia.
PMID42430468 DOI10.1126/sciadv.aea6654 Year2026 Journal Science advances Sci Adv Languageeng Statusppublish

Abstract

Prediction and management of zoonotic spillover requires an understanding of infection dynamics within reservoir host populations. Spillover risk is commonly inferred from infection prevalence based on detection of viral genomic material, yet detection alone does not indicate the presence of infectious virus or a sufficient dose for transmission. We undertook a comprehensive investigation of Hendra virus shedding in its primary reservoir, Pteropus bats, analyzing quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR) data from 6151 pooled urine samples collected across five sites over 3 years. We assessed longitudinal associations between viral prevalence (proportion of positive pooled urine samples), viral load proxies, and equine spillover, using generalized additive models and a permutation analysis. Peak prevalence periods associated with spillover events (N = 5) had a higher proportion of samples with high viral loads than periods without spillover. Prolonged periods of low viral load and low prevalence likely reflect noninfectious RNA or doses insufficient for cross-species transmission. Incorporating viral load metrics alongside prevalence can improve prediction of spillover risk.

Supporting text Virus Host Location
Chiroptera 371 Hendra Virus 39 Henipavirus Infections 65 Viral Load 36 Animals 1948 Disease Reservoirs 149 Horses 52 Prevalence 62 RNA, Viral 193 Virus Shedding 51

Evidence records

3 total
Zoonotic Surveillance
2 records · 2 evidence types
Evidence type Viral Detection
1 records
OVE11708 Viral Detection
Key finding

Hendra virus RNA was detected by RT‑qPCR in pooled urine from Pteropus bats across five sites over 3 years (6,151 samples).

Virus
Hendra virus
Host
Pteropus Natural host
Location
Not specified
Supporting text

We undertook a comprehensive investigation of Hendra virus shedding in its primary reservoir, Pteropus bats, analyzing quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR) data from 6151 pooled urine samples collected across five sites over 3 years.

Method
quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR)
Sample type
pooled urine samples
Evidence type Reservoir Ecology
1 records
OVE11710 Reservoir Ecology
Key finding

In the primary reservoir Pteropus bats, prolonged periods of low Hendra virus load and low prevalence likely represent noninfectious RNA or doses too low for cross-species transmission.

Virus
Hendra virus
Host
Pteropus Natural host
Location
Not specified
Supporting text

We undertook a comprehensive investigation of Hendra virus shedding in its primary reservoir, Pteropus bats, analyzing quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR) data from 6151 pooled urine samples collected across five sites over 3 years. Prolonged periods of low viral load and low prevalence likely reflect noninfectious RNA or doses insufficient for cross-species transmission.

Method
RT-qPCR | generalized additive models | permutation analysis
Sample type
pooled urine samples
Transmission Evidence
1 records · 1 evidence types
Evidence type Outbreak Investigation
1 records
OVE11709 Outbreak Investigation
Key finding

During five documented equine Hendra virus spillover events, peak bat shedding periods had a higher proportion of high–viral-load samples than periods without spillover.

Virus
Hendra virus
Host
horse Equus caballus Natural host Pteropus Natural host
Location
Not specified
Supporting text

We undertook a comprehensive investigation of Hendra virus shedding in its primary reservoir, Pteropus bats, analyzing quantitative PCR with reverse transcription (RT-qPCR) data from 6151 pooled urine samples collected across five sites over 3 years. Peak prevalence periods associated with spillover events (N = 5) had a higher proportion of samples with high viral loads than periods without spillover.

Method
RT-qPCR | generalized additive models | permutation analysis | pooled urine sampling
Outbreak scale
spillover events (N = 5)