OmniVira

Characterization of the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Nipah Virus Spillover Events in Bangladesh, 2007-2013.

Maria C Cortes1 Simon Cauchemez1,2,3 Noemie Lefrancq1 Stephen P Luby4 M Jahangir Hossain5,6 Hossain M S Sazzad5 Mahmudur Rahman7 Peter Daszak8 Henrik Salje1,2,3,9 Emily S Gurley9,5
Affiliations 9 institutions
  1. Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Paris, France.
  2. Center of Bioinformatics, Biostatistics and Integrative Biology, Institut Pasteur, Paris, France.
  3. CNRS, Paris, France.
  4. Stanford University, California.
  5. icddr,b, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  6. Medical Research Council Unit, Banjul, Gambia.
  7. Institute for Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research, Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Dhaka, Bangladesh.
  8. EcoHealth Alliance, New York, New York.
  9. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland.
PMID29351657 DOI10.1093/infdis/jiy015 Year2018 Journal The Journal of infectious diseases J Infect Dis Languageeng Statusppublish

Abstract

Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. However, there is significant heterogeneity in the number of spillovers detected by district and year that remains unexplained. We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity. Interventions to prevent human infections may be most important during colder winters. Further work is needed to understand how dynamics of bat infections explains spillover risk.

Supporting text Virus Host Location
Nipah Virus 45 Seasons 47 Animals 1948 Bangladesh 25 Chiroptera 371 Disease Outbreaks 170 Henipavirus Infections 65 Humans 1440 Retrospective Studies 18 Time Factors 26 Zoonoses 397

Evidence records

2 total
Transmission Evidence
2 records · 2 evidence types
Evidence type Spillover Event
1 records
OVE2848 Spillover Event
Key finding

Bat-to-human Nipah virus spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh.

Virus
Nipah virus
Host
human Homo sapiens Natural host bats Chiroptera Natural host
Location
Bangladesh
Supporting text

Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh.

Method
surveillance data analysis
Study design
retrospective surveillance analysis of confirmed spillover events by district and year (2007–2013)
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
BGD
Evidence type Outbreak Investigation
1 records
OVE2849 Outbreak Investigation
Key finding

An investigation of 57 Nipah virus spillover events in Bangladesh (2007–2013) found temperature and proximity to surveillance hospitals explained spatial and temporal heterogeneity in human cases.

Virus
Nipah virus
Host
human Homo sapiens Natural host bats Chiroptera Natural host
Location
Bangladesh
Supporting text

Nipah virus is a zoonotic virus harbored by bats and lethal to humans. Bat-to-human spillovers occur every winter in Bangladesh. We analyzed data from all 57 spillovers during 2007-2013 and found that temperature differences explained 36% of the year-to-year variation in the total number of spillovers each winter and that distance to surveillance hospitals explained 45% of spatial heterogeneity.

Method
epidemiological surveillance analysis | statistical modeling of spatial and temporal heterogeneity
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
BGD
Outbreak setting
community spillover surveillance in Bangladesh
Outbreak time
2007–2013
Outbreak scale
57 spillover events