The Ecology of Nipah Virus in Bangladesh: A Nexus of Land-Use Change and Opportunistic Feeding Behavior in Bats.

Clifton D McKee1 Ausraful Islam2 Stephen P Luby3 Henrik Salje4 Peter J Hudson5 Raina K Plowright6 Emily S Gurley1
Affiliations 6 institutions
  1. Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD 21205, USA.
  2. Infectious Diseases Division, icddr,b, Dhaka 1212, Bangladesh.
  3. Infectious Diseases and Geographic Medicine Division, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
  4. Department of Genetics, Cambridge University, Cambridge CB2 3EJ, UK.
  5. Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA 16801, USA.
  6. Department of Microbiology and Immunology, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA.

Abstract

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh. Understanding the ecological conditions that lead to spillover from bats to humans can assist in designing effective interventions. To investigate the current and historical processes that drive Nipah spillover in Bangladesh, we analyzed the relationship among spillover events and climatic conditions, the spatial distribution and size of Pteropus medius roosts, and patterns of land-use change in Bangladesh over the last 300 years. We found that 53% of annual variation in winter spillovers is explained by winter temperature, which may affect bat behavior, physiology, and human risk behaviors. We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources-conditions that promote viral spillover. Without interventions, continuing anthropogenic pressure on bat populations similar to what has occurred in Bangladesh could result in more regular spillovers of other bat viruses, including Hendra and Ebola viruses.

Supporting text Virus Host Location
one health 98 Pteropus 7 spillover 105 urbanization 1 zoonotic disease 19 Feeding Behavior 5 Animals 1948 Bangladesh 25 Chiroptera 371 Disease Outbreaks 170 Forests 10 Henipavirus Infections 65 Humans 1440 Linear Models 1 Nipah Virus 45 Seasons 47 Zoonoses 397

Evidence records

2 total
Zoonotic Surveillance
2 records · 1 evidence types
Evidence type
2 records
OVE4465
Key finding

Nipah virus has repeatedly spilled over from bats to humans in Bangladesh, producing annual outbreaks of fatal encephalitis.

Virus
Host
Location
Supporting text

Nipah virus is a bat-borne paramyxovirus that produces yearly outbreaks of fatal encephalitis in Bangladesh.

Method
outbreak surveillance | epidemiological analysis
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
OVE4467
Key finding

Small Pteropus medius populations that persist in high human-density areas and feed on cultivated food were identified as ecological conditions promoting Nipah virus spillover in Bangladesh.

Virus
Host
Location
Supporting text

We infer from changes in forest cover that a progressive shift in bat roosting behavior occurred over hundreds of years, producing the current system where a majority of P. medius populations are small (median of 150 bats), occupy roost sites for 10 years or more, live in areas of high human population density, and opportunistically feed on cultivated food resources-conditions that promote viral spillover.

Method
ecological inference | historical land-use analysis
Geographic raw
Bangladesh
Country inferred
BGD