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Literature detail

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia.

Cecilia A Sánchez1 Hongying Li1 Kendra L Phelps1 Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio2 Lin-Fa Wang3 Peng Zhou4 Zheng-Li Shi4 Kevin J Olival1 Peter Daszak5
Affiliations 5 institutions
  1. EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  2. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
  3. Programme in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
  4. Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.
  5. EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. [email protected].
PMID 35945197 2022 Nat Commun eng epublish
PubMed DOI Browse context

Article

Publication summary

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Chiroptera COVID-19 Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus Animals Asia, Southeastern Evolution, Molecular Humans Phylogeny Seroepidemiologic Studies

Structured evidence records

Evidence records

3 total
Serological Evidence 1 records
Serological Evidence Extraction confidence 0.90
Key finding

Human seroprevalence and antibody duration data indicate frequent exposure to bat SARS-related coronaviruses, with an estimated annual infection burden of about 66,000 individuals in Southeast Asia.

Virus
SARSr-CoV
Location
Not specified
Supporting text

We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia.

Sample type
serum
Spillover Event 1 records
Spillover Event Extraction confidence 0.95
Key finding

Bat SARS-related coronaviruses spill over to humans in Southeast Asia, with tens of thousands of infections occurring annually.

Virus
SARSr-CoV
Location
Southeast Asia
Supporting text

We estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia, indicating frequent spillover of bat SARS-related coronaviruses to humans.

Method
serology; risk modeling; host distribution mapping
Study design
probabilistic risk assessment
Transmission direction
animal-to-human
Geographic raw
Southeast Asia
Zoonotic Surveillance 1 records
Zoonotic Surveillance Extraction confidence 0.85
Key finding

Bat SARS-related coronaviruses were geographically mapped across Southeast Asia to assess human contact overlap, generating data to inform zoonotic surveillance programs.

Virus
SARSr-CoV
Host
Chiroptera
Location
Southeast Asia
Supporting text

We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Method
probabilistic risk assessment; range distribution modeling; serological data analysis
Geographic raw
Southeast Asia