OmniVira

A strategy to assess spillover risk of bat SARS-related coronaviruses in Southeast Asia.

Cecilia A Sánchez1 Hongying Li1 Kendra L Phelps1 Carlos Zambrana-Torrelio2 Lin-Fa Wang3 Peng Zhou4 Zheng-Li Shi4 Kevin J Olival1 Peter Daszak5
Affiliations 5 institutions
  1. EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA.
  2. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA.
  3. Programme in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore, Singapore.
  4. Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, China.
  5. EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY, USA. [email protected].
PMID35945197 DOI10.1038/s41467-022-31860-w Year2022 Journal Nature communications Nat Commun Languageeng Statusepublish

Abstract

Emerging diseases caused by coronaviruses of likely bat origin (e.g., SARS, MERS, SADS, COVID-19) have disrupted global health and economies for two decades. Evidence suggests that some bat SARS-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoVs) could infect people directly, and that their spillover is more frequent than previously recognized. Each zoonotic spillover of a novel virus represents an opportunity for evolutionary adaptation and further spread; therefore, quantifying the extent of this spillover may help target prevention programs. We derive current range distributions for known bat SARSr-CoV hosts and quantify their overlap with human populations. We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351-67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia. These data on the geography and scale of spillover can be used to target surveillance and prevention programs for potential future bat-CoV emergence.

Supporting text Virus Host Location
Chiroptera 371 COVID-19 425 Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 78 Animals 1948 Asia, Southeastern 10 Evolution, Molecular 176 Humans 1440 Phylogeny 805 Seroepidemiologic Studies 113

Evidence records

2 total
Zoonotic Surveillance
2 records · 1 evidence types
Evidence type Serological Evidence
2 records
OVE6231 Serological Evidence
Key finding

Quantitative modeling indicates frequent animal-to-human spillover of bat SARS-related coronaviruses infecting tens of thousands of people annually in Southeast Asia.

Virus
SARS-related coronavirus
Host
bats Chiroptera Natural host human Homo sapiens Natural host
Location
Southeast Asia
Supporting text

We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people (95% CI: 65,351–67,131) are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia.

Method
probabilistic risk assessment | human-bat contact data | human viral seroprevalence | antibody duration modeling
OVE6233 Serological Evidence
Key finding

Human seroprevalence data indicated antibody evidence of prior exposure to SARSr-CoVs among people in Southeast Asia.

Virus
SARS-related coronavirus
Host
human Homo sapiens Natural host
Location
Not specified
Supporting text

We then use probabilistic risk assessment and data on human-bat contact, human viral seroprevalence, and antibody duration to estimate that a median of 66,280 people ... are infected with SARSr-CoVs annually in Southeast Asia.

Method
seroprevalence | antibody detection
Sample type
serum